In recent years, the U.S. trade policy of frequent tariff increases has had a far-reaching impact on the global industrial chain, with the tinplate (tin-plated steel) and its downstream easy-open lid industry bearing the brunt of the impact. As one of the world's largest tinplate producers and exporters, Chinese enterprises need to face the multiple challenges brought by the US tariff policy. This paper combines industry data and policy trends, analyses the impact of U.S. tariffs on the tinplate industry, and puts forward proposals to deal with.

First, the direct impact of tariffs: rising costs and market contraction

1. Raw material costs rise

The U.S. anti-dumping duty on Chinese tinplate has been as high as 122.5%, resulting in a substantial increase in the cost of Chinese export enterprises. In 2024, for example, China's direct exports of tinplate to the United States only accounted for 5% of total exports, but if superimposed on the re-export trade, the actual impact of a wider range. For easy to open the lid industry, tinplate as a core raw material, its price increases will be directly transmitted to the production costs, compression of corporate profit margins.

2. Restricted access to the U.S. market

The self-sufficiency rate of U.S. tinplate continues to decline, with production in 2023 decreasing by 25.5% year-on-year, and import dependence climbing year by year. However, the high tariff policy forces Chinese enterprises to sharply reduce their exports to the United States. For example, China exported only 32,700 tonnes of tinplate to the U.S. in 2023, and although it increased to 85,700 tonnes in 2024 as a result of the export rush, the market space is still suppressed in the long run.

Second, industry chain transmission effects: global supply chain reshaping and downstream industry shocks

1. U.S. downstream industries suffer setbacks

The U.S. can manufacturing and other industries are highly dependent on imported tinplate, and the tariff policy has led to the closure of production lines by a number of enterprises. For example, the American Can Manufacturers Association pointed out that the 2018 steel and aluminium tariffs have already hit tinplate manufacturers hard, and a new round of tariffs could increase the price of canned food by 30%. The rising cost of easy-open lids, a key component of food packaging, will further exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US consumer market.

2. The trend of ‘de-Americanisation’ of global supply chains

In order to avoid tariffs, international companies have accelerated the adjustment of their supply chain layout. For example, European enterprises reduce their dependence on the US market through re-export trade or looking for alternative suppliers. Chinese tinplate enterprises may need to expand the Middle East, Southeast Asia and other emerging markets, in order to hedge the risk of decline in exports to the United States.

III. Evolution of the industry's competitive landscape: technological upgrading and market fragmentation

1. Intensified domestic competition

Export obstruction may force Chinese tinplate enterprises to turn to the domestic market, but the problem of domestic overcapacity or exacerbate price competition. The easy-open lid industry needs to differentiate products (such as environmentally friendly, lightweight design) to enhance added value, to avoid falling into the trap of low-priced competition.

2. Technology forcing and industrial upgrading

The U.S. tariff policy objectively pushes China's tinplate industry to accelerate technological upgrading. For example, by improving the tin-plating process to reduce production costs, or develop high-performance coating technology to comply with international environmental standards, so as to open up high value-added markets.

Response Strategy: Multi-dimensional Layout and Policy Synergy

1. Diversified market layout, expand the ‘Belt and Road’ market: the Middle East, Africa and other regions of the rapid growth in demand for food packaging, can become a new growth point for the export of easy-open lid.

2. Deepen localised cooperation: invest and build factories in Southeast Asia and other places, and make use of regional FTAs to reduce tariff barriers.

3. Upstream integration: co-operate with domestic steel enterprises to stabilise raw material supply and reduce costs.

4. Digital management: Optimise inventory and logistics through IoT technology to cope with the uncertainty of international trade policies.

Conclusion

The impact of the U.S. tariff policy on the tinplate cap industry is complex and far-reaching, bringing cost pressure and market contraction, but also forcing the industry to transform and upgrade. Chinese enterprises need to be driven by technological innovation and reconstruct the industrial chain with a global perspective to break through in the trade friction headwinds. In the future, the industry needs to pay close attention to U.S. policy trends (e.g., tariff exemption dynamics), and flexibly adjust its strategy to turn challenges into opportunities.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)